Tuesday, 15 September 2009

Cycles







This is the first entry of a glossary I will be compiling in response to the so-called "RealClimate" "Comprehensive climate glossary"

RealClimate is an alarmist website headed by an interesting picture of a giant orange sun warming the Earth. But look closely and you will see giant chimneys the size of small planets looming over the Earth's atmosphere. No such planet sized chimneys actually exist as far as we know (NASA confirms this), so such an image paints a false reality

I advise anyone with a nervous disposition to avoid reading the RealClimate "climate glossary". I myself have a stout heart but nevertheless I almost choked on my breakfast when I read the first entry on Aerosols and stumbled across the alarming word "anthropogenic" which had been recklessly placed in the midst of an otherwise harmless sentence. To think that children might innocently stumble across such material.

Realclimate describe an Aerosol as "A collection of airborne solid or liquid particles, with a typical size between 0.01 and 10 ยตm and residing in the atmosphere for at least several hours. Aerosols may be of either natural or anthropogenic origin."

But just how do they know these airborne solids stay in the atmosphere for "at least several hours"? If you spray a can of deodorant in a fair sized locker room and come back just 30 minutes later the smell will have gone. This is a real world experiment and one which I have performed.

With such flaws in mind I decided to write a corrected climate glossary with up to date Blog Science definitions. The first entry is..

Cycles

sometimes referred to as Natural Cycles

A Cycle is a kind of quasi-mystical non-explanation for climate events unfolding around us which we can invoke to explain away any climate change as natural. 

If glaciers are melting, sea ice is declining, temperature is going up and sea level is increasing, well that's just part of a Natural Cycle out of the last ice age and of course we expected that to happen. If the opposite happens and it starts getting colder, glaciers and sea ice start growing, sea ice starts increasing and sea level is dropping, well that's also expected because a Natural Cycle moves in mysterious ways.

Cycles can also be used to predict the future. If the climate is warming it's almost certainly going to cool soon and if it's cooling there is almost certainly going to be a devastating ice age down the line and we should prepare for it by reducing taxes. 

Cycles keep us on our toes and put a few dozen nails in the coffin of manmade global warming at the same time. Some cycles have names, for example PDO, AMO, the unstoppable 1500-year cycle [1] (which recently stopped), the carbon cycle, the accelerating Heartland Climate Conference cycle, and so on. Other cycles remain unknown. It's these invisible unknown cycles that we can blame for climate change when all else fails.

I remember when we marveled at our ignorance of nature and didn't pretend to try to understand it all. Those were the good old days when men would respect Cycles in nature. So-called "scientists" in their lavish towering laboratories made of fine ivory could learn a thing or two about climate from fishermen and farmers who live by Natural Cycles. These are Real People living in the Real World with Real Jobs and Real Concerns about taxes.

Anyway I am rambling now. So concludes the glossary entry for cycles.

[1] http://www.gopusa.com/theloft/wp-print.php?p=1767

38 comments:

  1. While what appear to be climate trends are just natural cycles, it is also important to note that natural cycles imply the existence of natural, non-anthropogenic trends. Surely your post on cycles cannot be considered complete without note of the fantastic work on cycles done by noteable blog/magazine/op-ed-page/book-scientist Jonah Goldberg:

    “Global warming is a long-term trend, Dr. Meehl says. … [the Science 11-year solar cycle] study attempts to explain the processes behind a periodic occurrence.”

    This overlooks the fact that solar cycles are permanent “periodic occurrences,” a.k.a. a very long-term trend.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks for the comment. I notice Jonah says "I'm not denying that man-made pollution and other activity have played a role in planetary warming since the Industrial Revolution"

    What is the significance of that? To say I have no idea is quite an understatement, but it will have to do. What I find interesting is the eagerness of the author to make it very clear that he isn't denying manmade global warming.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the insight on cycles. My head is spinning with knowledge.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Great work! The key point is that simple cycles explain every aspect of the climate that has been observed without the need for carbon dioxide to have a role. These same cycles are so complex that the warmofascist bedwetting models cannot simulate the climate.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Baron von Monckhofen20 September 2009 at 05:16

    Inferno,

    How can you write about cycles without even mentioning the seminal work of Ernst-Georg Beck? Go to this page and scroll down to the figure labelled "Der CO2-Treibhausirrtum". This figure shows a climate cycle of around 1600 (or is it 800?) years. Notice that for pedagogical purposes, the temporal scale changes around 800 AD. (The page is in German, which adds enormously to its scientific credibility).

    Beck was also the man who showed us what the CO2-curve really looks like.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Great post.
    What brand of deodorant spray did you use?
    I was always an Old Spice man, but after my girlfriend dumped me I got to thinking how she always said I smelled like her grandpa, so I switched to Axe when I was set loose amongst the ladies again. Whoa! Let me tell you. The only think I can compare it to is back on the farm when the nanny goats used to go into heat, our old billy would stick his head between his legs and pee on it. Then we'd set those nannies in with him and they'd get one whiff and it was all over.
    Regards,
    Richard Head

    ReplyDelete
  7. Inferno,

    I don't know why Jonah felt the need to diminish his credibility in that way. Of course, it is interesting that even some non-denialists like Goldberg realize there is NO PROOF of manmade climate change.

    Jonah Goldberg, if you're unfamiliar with him, is a serious, thoughtful blogjournalist whose arguments have never been made in such detail or with such care. He has written the most authoritative expose of the fascist tendencies of the left, with the possible exception of this site.

    Oh, and don't worry yourself too much with responding to RealClimate. Remember, everything written on that site is on a site that regularly gives blogspace to Michael Mann. That is rebuttal enough.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Inferno,

    I'm disappointed that you did not mention the paradigm shifting work on W-CYCLES by Blog Science genius Dr Girma Orssengo. Just remember the "W" and you will know what global temperatures will be for hundreds of years. No warmist could have made such an incisive analysis, obsessed as they are with "models" and "equations".

    As is so often the case with the truly great, Dr Orssengo is modest to a point that beggars belief, as shown by this typical throw away remark.

    I solved the global warming problem in just three weeks. In my spare time. I wonder what others have been doing.
    The only result you need to see the history and future of mean global temperature is my soon to be famous graph
    You must now nominate me for you know what... (Oslo)

    ReplyDelete
  9. Baron von Monckhofen20 September 2009 at 12:22

    Strictly speaking, Dr Orssengo's brilliant discovery is not about cycles but about the letter W.
    Or as Orssengo says himself, displaying unparalleled pedagogical skills:

    Yes, the mean global temperature goes like this

    WWWWWWWWWWWW etc


    I also notice that Dr Orssengo has found a way to tilt the graph without tilting the axes: "Mean Global Temperature Anomaly Relative to Linear Warming of 0.44 deg C/100 years". Sometimes it is amazing how fast blog science progresses.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Actually, having followed Dr. Girma's magnum opus of a thread, I believe he (possibly for reasons related to the expected lo-IQ and herd instincts of the warmist sheep) is over simplifying.

    Having checked his source material, I find it begins with the 'W' trend, succeeded by an 'A' trend, succeeded by an 'N' trend.

    The bifurcation in the next trend seems a bit ... odd.

    ReplyDelete
  11. You've missed a trick. Apparently the giant orange sun can easily be mistaken for an even more alarming giant meteorite headed for the earth.

    ReplyDelete
  12. chek,

    Indeed. I did wonder why Prof Orssengo insisted on the letter "W", not a "V" of precisely double the frequency.

    Then it became clear. Use of "W" means that we will forever associate this breakthrough discovery with its originator and no one else! Clearly, Prof Orssengo's understanding of mnemonics is the equal of his other skills.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Baron von Monckhofen21 September 2009 at 07:51

    Actually, WWWWWWWWWWWW sound pretty cool when you pronounce it. You can for instance pretend you are a fighter jet, or an Australian bush fire, or a hot air balloon.

    WWWWWWWWWWWW!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Baron von Monckhofen21 September 2009 at 07:52

    I cannot stop.

    WWWWWWWWWWWW!

    ReplyDelete
  15. This WWWWWWWWWWWW! seems WWWWWWWWWWWW! to WWWWWWWWWWWW! be WWWWWWWWWWWW! highly WWWWWWWWWWWW! addictive.

    ...Phew! That's better.

    I think I might have a solution. Try to imagine this image and make whatever sound comes into your head. It seems to offer a satisfying way of terminating a bout of WWWWWWWWWWWW!

    ReplyDelete
  16. "You can for instance pretend you are a fighter jet,or an Australian bush fire, or a hot air balloon."

    Or a hot air retard, as the case may be. Oops, that wouldn't be pretending though.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Dr. Inferno,

    Excellent work as always! Indeed, as the brilliant blog scientist Roy W. Spencer recently wrote: "And when the natural cycle deniers demand changes in energy policy, most of them never imagine that they might personally be inconvenienced by those policies. Like Al Gore, John F. Kennedy, Jr., and Leonardo DiCaprio, they scornfully look down upon the rest of humanity for using up the natural resources that they want for themselves." [ http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/07/rise-of-the-natural-climate-cycle-deniers/ ]

    Climate cycles are just as mysterious and completely unexplained as the rising of the sun in the morning or the rising of the tides during the day (when there is no moon there to effect them). These AGW types know they are full of lies, all they want is to convince the sovereign citizens of America to pass the fruits of their natural, God-given superiority to the lesser peoples of the Earth (non-Americans). Wealth re-distribution, pure and simple: from productive white American tax payers to "others" (to put it nicely).

    Marx himself could not have asked for a better scheme to convince the productive to lay aside their wealth for the benefit of the "poor and downtrodden" any better than the AGW crowd. Make no mistake about it, no Marxist regime is going to use our natural resources any less than a patriotic American one, the only difference is that decent God-fearing Christian Republicans are willing to share the wealth of fossil fuels with WE THE PEOPLE; whereas DemonRat Lie-brals just want to hoard it all for themselves. I have not seen the Kenyan Usurper (or "Obama" or whatever his name is since we haven't seen his birth certificate) commit to an eco-friendly military, suggest commuting in in an "electric" Air Force One, or using an "organic" computer that doesn't use fossil-fuel based plastics in it.

    And that is the point. The AGW crowd has no intention of stopping, or even curtailing, the use of hydro-carbons; no, they just want to use them all themselves as opposed to sharing. You can toot along to work in your battery-powered toy car while their secret police jet around in high powered Toyotoas (from the Communist state of Japan). You won't even be able to get to the gun store fast enough to buy ammo by the time the DemonRats are done with you. Stockpile now, is my advice.

    Yours in Christ,
    Prof. Malvolio

    ReplyDelete
  18. Dr. Inferno,

    By the way, shouldn't your glossary begin with the very term you found so disturbing in your post?

    Anthropogenic: An anti-American slang term used by anti-American bigots to vilify the use of the resources the Lord Jesus Christ gave us, such as oil and coal. The term, such as it is, has no meaning among responsible academics and is only used by Marxists out to defame the Lord Jesus Christ by undermining the status of His Chosen Empire, the United States of America.

    God Bless America!

    Yours in Christ,
    Prof. Malvolio

    ReplyDelete
  19. Baron von Monckhofen21 September 2009 at 23:53

    Dear prof. Malvolio,

    Your words cut through the shameless lies and hypocrisy of the warmiscists like a knife through butter on a hot steamy day.

    Mmmm ... butter ... mmmm

    ReplyDelete
  20. But anthropogenic global warming is also a natural cycle. When mankind dies out the CO2 levels will fall, the globe will cool. Once our new cockroach overlords evolve opposable thumbs and rediscover the internal combustion engine, the CO2 will rise and the planet warms up again. It's just stupid to think it's somethin' to get all bothered about.

    Best,

    Roscoe P. Coltrane

    ReplyDelete
  21. Prof Malvolio,

    I'm so glad that you reminded us all that "Global Warming" is an invention of the DemonRat atheists.

    I suggest we show our support for God-fearing Christian Republican Americans by making our voices heard at the excellent Shelley The Republican. I also recommend the site as educational material for DemonRats and Warmists. Every article there has been endorsed by God Himself so we know they are TRUE BEYOND DOUBT. Here is just one perfect example

    Will you change your life and save America and the World?

    ReplyDelete
  22. Baron von Monckhofen22 September 2009 at 08:27

    Wrinkled Retainer,

    Thanks for poining us to that most wonderful site! After reading it I feel .... purified and certain. Now I'll go and smash the neighbours' kid's Nintendo!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Baron,

    I am only sorry that I did not mention this wonderful resource before. I think we can all agree that it stands for much that Denial Depot also stands for and the 2 complement one other almost to perfection.

    You will be impressed by the generous nature of STR, something that can come only when the hand of the Almighty is present. When I sent a message expressing my admiration for the site a few years ago, I happened to mention that I was not American. The reply was,

    sorry to hear that you are not American but I think God has His reasons to punish you this way.
    Thanks for the support, though

    Such compassion! Such concern for those unlucky not to be God fearing American Republicans!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hi WR,

    Im not amertican either Im from Essex. Is that wrong?

    Btw that person who said he woz my boyfriend on the other thread couldnt have been coz ghe said he woz from Florida which isnt in Essex.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Summer,

    Take no heed, there's absolutely nothing wrong with being second-rate and British. It's what being British is all about.

    And how could living in Essex be wrong?
    Except for Billericay obviously.
    I spent many years in Ilford, and often find myself yearning to once again see those majestic mountains, and grand vistas, leaping from tree to tree as they float down the mighty rivers of ... Essex!
    The Larch! The Pine!
    The Giant Redwood! The Sequoia!

    There's no doubt that the Americans are a great people; but just not as great as they like to think they are.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Baron von Monckhofen22 September 2009 at 12:25

    I'm from Prussia, the bloody finest greatest country in the world!

    ReplyDelete
  27. Spotted in WUWT comment:

    "For some different facts on Ozone check here:
    http://junkscience.com/Ozone/ozone_seasonal.html"

    Different Facts For Different Needs

    ReplyDelete
  28. The Baron said:
    "I'm from Prussia, the bloody finest greatest country in the world!"

    And we thank you Baron as representative of a country-ette that has contributed so much to the modern world as we know it.

    But it is also true that we are human and are shaped by the fickle proboscis of fate.

    For instance, after a particularly bad accident, my brother spent several months in the world renowned Burns Unit at Billericay, and I recall several anxious weeks wandering around the town looking for a McDonald's and awaiting the least indication of good news.

    Unfortunately, despite several ultimately unsuccessful interventions, he was completely unable to master 18th century lowland Scots poetry and flunked out.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hi chek

    Im sorry about your brothoer. There is a McDs in Brentwood which is quite close.

    HTH

    Summer

    ReplyDelete
  30. Thanks Summer,

    I suppose it only goes to show that none of us can ever know when we might be engulfed in a life threatening poetry crisis.

    And it is comforting to know, should the worst ever happen, that a Brentwood McD's is close to hand.

    ReplyDelete
  31. To my British friends,

    All apologies if you took my patriotic comments as offensive. I have absolutely nothing against the British (well, except Scots, but that's a different story) and meant no disrespect. In fact, I like to think of the people of Air Strip One as "honorary Americans".

    After all, the Lord Jesus Christ used your fair isle as the setting to reveal the only absolutely true and infallible book ever written, the original 1611 King James Version of the Holy Bible. Ever since the Great War, our two countries have stood shoulder to shoulder: from the liberation of the Falklands and Grenada to the ongoing crusades against the Mohammedians.

    So, all apologies if anyone took offense. If there are any good non-Americans, surely they are people of the United Kingdom.

    God Save the Queen and God Bless America.

    Yours in Christ,
    Prof. Malvolio

    ReplyDelete
  32. chek,

    I once had reason to visit a Scottish hospital and was taken round the wards. Everything seemed most encouraging until I reached the last ward.

    I went to the first man and he said,
    Fair fa' yer honest, sonsie face,
    Great chieftain e' the puddin' race!
    Aboon them a' ye tak your place,
    painch tripe or thairm:
    Weel are ye wordy o' a grace
    as lang's my arm.


    Somewhat taken aback, I went to the next patient, who said,
    Some hae meat, and canna eat,
    And some wad eat that want it,
    But we hae meat and we can eat,
    And sae the Lord be thankit.


    By now I was most confused but continued to the third patient, who said,
    Wee sleekit cow'rin tim'rous beastie,
    O what a panic's in thy breastie!
    Thou need na start awa sae hasty,
    wi' bickering brattle.
    I wad be laith to run and chase thee,
    wi' murdering prattle!"


    I asked the doctor who was acting as my guide, "I didn't realise you had a psychiatric ward here".

    "Nae, nae" he said, "this is the Serious Burns unit."

    I must assume that the Billericay Unit is for mild cases only.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Your scholarly reply has actually given me the impetus to do some research WR, for which I thank you.

    It's all too easy to view history as an unfolding of an ongoing rolling program socio/politico/economic circumstance, yet that may not be the whole story.

    Taking Scots history from the invention of the kilt (obviously an artefact of the MWP echoing the Roman WP) through the Highland Clearance Sales to the clipped and frosty lowland lilt of Burns eking out his Little Ice Age existence by writing books.

    It's well known that writers throw away much of what they write that doesn't make it to the printer's plate, and if doing so keeps the fire going so much the better.

    I expect the contemporary Byron was similarly driven to keep those LIA shivers at bay, and rather like those legendary infinite monkeys with their infinite quills, managed to occasionally come up with some passable stuff.

    ReplyDelete
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